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What is "Just Transition"?

Workers and Communities in Transition: Report of the Just Transition Listening Project

The report synthesizes lessons from more than 100 listening sessions with labor and community groups to gather their perspectives on transitions as well as identifies how coalitions have come together and what pathways exist to a just future.

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The findings of this report are derived from more than 100 in-depth listening sessions, including qualitative interviews and focused discussion groups with workers and community members from across the United States, which were conducted in 2020. The sessions, typically lasting an hour or more, involved workers from dozens of unionized and nonunionized industries; union leaders; members of frontline communities, including environmental justice communities, communities of color, and Indigenous communities; along with leaders from labor, environmental justice, climate justice, and other community organizations.

The aim of the sessions was to capture the voices of the workers and community members who had experienced, are currently experiencing, or anticipate experiencing some form of economic transition. The report suggests how past transitions, driven by market forces, corporate entities, and shortsighted public policies, often leave workers and communities largely behind, with little to no support. As such, community trauma has gone unrecognized and unaddressed for years.

The report identifies several themes that have emerged through these sessions, including a picture of what transition entails; how coalitions have come together, particularly those including labor and environment groups; how common vision and strategies for change are built; and what pathways to a just future exist. The report also highlights how individual and collective understandings of transitions range widely, according to type of work, class, gender, race, age, political ideology, previous experiences with environmentalists or the climate justice movement, and relationships with unions and the community. The report affords insightful reading and covers recommendations for policymakers; labor and movement organizations; and future research to fill in the identified gaps in knowledge, including understanding how sectoral transitions such as automation, digitalization, hybrid working, and health care could be done in an equitable manner.

Job Losses and Political Acceptability of Climate Policies: Why the ‘Job-Killing’ Argument is So Persistent and How to Overturn It

The author examines how real or perceived job losses from climate policies impact the willingness of workers to support these policies and identifies countervailing policies for decisionmakers to consider.

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This paper examines the political acceptability of climate policies and the prevalence of the argument that these policies kill jobs. The author argues that the aggregate losses from climate policies are significantly smaller than the benefits, in terms of health and labor market outcomes. Using case studies and empirical evidence, the author maintains that the “job-killing” argument is exacerbated by a collective action problem. Individuals who are modestly “winning” have little motivation to organize to support climate policies, while those most negatively impacted are more likely to rally against these policies. Concerns for jobs tend to outweigh climate change concerns, especially in the face of extreme negative economic shocks.

The author identifies several factors that amplify the prominence of the “job-killing” argument in affected communities. In addition to the financial crisis and the increase of international competition from China, the geographic concentration of affected workers in the same area is also a key factor. The author also highlights political factors, such as the weakening of unions, which has led to job quantity being prioritized over job quality.

The author suggests that decisionmakers should consider implementing countervailing policies that minimize the collective action problem resulting from negative economic shocks. The author uses examples to suggest some possible policies. These include using lump-sum transfers to affected workers and their communities as a means to increase the political acceptability of climate policies and revenues from a carbon tax being either used to finance workers’ retraining programs or recycled to reduce labor taxation.

Jobs in a Net-Zero Emissions Future in Latin America and the Caribbean

The report details a decarbonization pathway for Latin America and the Caribbean region, identifies expected labor changes in various sectors, and focuses on equity considerations needed in each of the affected sectors.

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This report takes a detailed look at decarbonization pathways in the Latin America and the Caribbean region and highlights the potential to create 15 million net jobs in sectors, such as sustainable agriculture, forestry, solar and wind power, manufacturing, and construction during such a transition. The report suggests that, with adequately-designed measures to ensure that these jobs are decent and that those who lose out in the transition are protected and supported, recovery plans can create climate benefits, while also boosting growth, tackling inequality, and making progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals.

This report is based on an input-output analysis using a Global Trade Analysis Project Power database, a commonly employed tool for assessing the direct and indirect environmental and socioeconomic impacts of decarbonization efforts. The study finds that only three sectors would shrink in the transition to a decarbonized economy: 1) fossil-fuel based electricity, with about 80,000 jobs lost, or more than half of the current number; 2) fossil-fuel extraction, with almost a third of the current number, or 280,000 jobs eliminated; and 3) animal-based food production systems, with five percent of current jobs lost, representing half a million jobs.

The report provides a sectoral overview of the region and highlights how it is still struggling with gender and ethnic inequalities, skills gaps, insufficient social protection, and a large informal sector, despite more than a decade of steady progress. Prevailing decent work deficits, inequalities, and dependence on fossil fuel exports are expected to make Latin America and the Caribbean particularly susceptible to the social and economic impacts of climate change. The report also identifies the critical need for fairness in this transition and devotes a chapter to identifying the sector-wise equity and justice considerations needed to allow a successful transition in sectors that include energy, agriculture, forestry, waste management, tourism, transport, and construction.

Equity, Climate Justice and Fossil Fuel Extraction: Principles for a Managed Phase Out

This paper offers general principles and policy insights to help the international community equitably manage the social dimensions of a rapid transition away from fossil-fuel extraction.

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This paper explores how to equitably manage the social dimensions of a rapid transition away from fossil-fuel extraction within international climate politics. It analyzes equity issues related to fossil-fuel extraction and efforts to curb it in accordance with climate targets. The authors examine three common equity approaches from the literature, from which they derive guiding principles and policy recommendations for managing this global challenge.

The authors review the distributional issues arising from the phaseout of fossil-fuel extraction and argue that meeting international climate targets will require a more strategic approach to accelerating transitions in both Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. They then examine the implications of fossil-fuel extraction for employment, public revenues, and energy provision, examining how extraction activities can be both a “blessing” and a “curse.”

The authors then discuss three equity frameworks that appear in the broader climate-policy literature: allocating carbon budgets based on economic efficiency, development needs, and “fair shares” of global transitional efforts. Drawing from this analysis, they propose five principles for managing concerns related to equity and climate change, touching on questions surrounding the cost and pace of transitions, as well as the distributional impacts at various levels of government. They conclude with policy suggestions for how to apply these principles in practice.

Just Transitions: Lessons Learned in South Africa and Eastern Europe

This commentary summarizes critical elements of case studies on just transitions to help guide future research, and includes lessons learned in ongoing just transitions work in South Africa and Eastern Europe.

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This commentary summarizes a workshop held by the Climate Investment Funds (CIF) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on just transitions in South Africa and Eastern Europe. More case studies on sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and developing Asia could shed light on just transitions in countries with fewer economic resources and more limited social safety nets. The commentary includes a table summarizing critical elements of case studies to help identify key insights and best practices in future research.

In South Africa, just transitions are urgent because market and policy signals indicate an inevitable decline of coal, yet a transition could harm workers and communities dependent on coal mining. Policies intended to elevate renewable energy in the country have also failed to support energy access for black communities or address issues of racial injustice. The author notes that just transitions in South Africa need to address issues of inclusivity and power relations.

Central and Eastern Europe is a focal point for just transitions as many countries in the region anticipate phasing out coal and emissions-intensive industries in the coming decades. This commentary cites several positive examples of community engagement and local participation in just transitions. However, case studies indicate that more should be done to boost input at the local level.

Brown to Green: The G20 Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy

This report examines the progress made by the G20 countries in their transition to low-carbon and climate-resilient economies and addresses the need for a just transition.

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This report from Climate Transparency reviews climate actions by the Group of Twenty (G20) states, assessing their transition to low-carbon and climate-resilient economies. The report questions whether the G20 countries are on track to meet Paris Agreement goals, documenting leaders and laggards.

The report finds that current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) would lead to a global temperature increase of around 3.2 degrees Celsius. The authors outline the progress made by G20 countries since the Paris Agreement based on several decarbonization indicators. They criticize nearly all G20 countries for not implementing climate mitigation policies more aggressively, calling on them to institute a 50% emissions cut by 2030 to reach Paris Agreement goals.

The report analyzes several just transition initiatives in G20 countries to identify lessons learned. In Canada, for example, a federal task force developed a just transition plan for coal workers and communities, and the Chinese government seeks to allocate $4.5 billion over the next three years to support the closure of small coal mines. Australia, on the other hand, negotiated a comprehensive agreement with the Victoria government and three privately owned power stations to reduce job losses rather than manage their effects.

How (Not) to Phase-out Coal: Lessons from Germany for Just and Timely Coal Exits

This paper identifies nine key lessons learned from Germany’s coal phaseout to help guide effective and equitable coal transitions elsewhere in the world.

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This report examines the positive and negative elements of the coal transition process in Germany. The authors propose nine benchmarks for governing coal phaseouts in Europe and elsewhere. A timely and just coal phaseout requires good leadership, transparency, social inclusion, and the legal flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances, among other aspects.

Looking at the legislation shaping Germany’s coal phaseout, the authors argue that its decision to set a rigid deadline created an unstable transition process and generated conflict. They suggest that the lack of flexibility in the country’s legal framework will result in an unsynchronized coal exit with no room for “future governments to adjust the pathways and end date.” Although a national commission was created to oversee the phaseout, the authors criticize the lack of clarity regarding the implementation of its recommendations. They claim that regional and local stakeholders were not sufficiently involved in the phaseout process and call for aligning just transition measures with climate and sustainable development targets

Just Transition: A Social Route To Sustainability

This report introduces the concept of just transitions, outlines their role in providing a social route to sustainability, and provides new guiding principles for policymakers.

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This report consists of 16 short essays explaining the concept and application of just transitions through discussion of various just transition policies such as the European Green Deal. These contributions from European and international government officials and trade union leaders advocate collective action and engagement with affected communities to draw on their knowledge and perspectives.

The concept of just transitions has gained popularity in the last few decades but remains poorly understood. The report describes just transitions as a bridge between the current world—in which the gap between the rich and the poor enables outsourcing of environmental damage of all kinds—and a world in which “human well-being is improved,” not just growth. It calls for designing fair socioecological policies that not only aim to reduce pollution but also address inequality and social injustice.

In addition, the report emphasizes the need to mobilize resources such as the European Union’s Just Transition Fund and develop the right tools for an inclusive approach to climate change and social issues. It describes sustainability as a core principle for just transitions, urging the European Green Deal to “integrate all dimensions of sustainability,” including social, environmental, and economic aspects. The authors criticize a lack of media coverage of the issues and maintain that stronger public support is needed to combat climate change and improve environmental justice.

Mine Closure and Rehabilitation in South Africa: Activating Coalitions of the Willing for a Just Future

This brief discusses the outcome of two conferences organized by the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Mining Dialogue 360 and proposes just solutions for South Africa’s future mine closures.

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This brief presents the challenges, outcomes, and suggested solutions resulting from two conferences that the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Mining Dialogue 360 held in Johannesburg and Cape Town in December 2019 and January 2020, respectively. The discussions focused on two central themes: ways to strengthen existing policies and legislation regulating mine closures in South Africa and the role of land rehabilitation in supporting a just transition.

An orderly process of mine closures and land rehabilitation in South Africa is still far from reality despite existing legislation. This brief denounces the incoherence in existing policies and the government’s inability to enforce them. The authors call for regulatory reform, greater transparency, and a strict enforcement of laws penalizing non-compliance.

The paper argues in favor of greater community inclusion to ensure transformative mine closure and rehabilitation processes that are in the best interest of the fossil fuel–dependent communities. The authors see early planning as the best approach to successfully shifting to a post-mining, sustainable economy. However, they remain skeptical that South Africa can oversee such a transformation due to the lack of basic mechanisms such as multi-stakeholder cooperation.

Economic Development Policies to Enable Fairness for Workers and Communities in Transition

This report analyzes the potential efficacy of U.S. federal policies and programs that could help fossil fuel–producing regions and workers transition to a low-carbon future.

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This report analyzes the U.S. federal programs that could help fossil fuel–producing regions transition to a low-carbon future. It divides these programs into those that target local or regional economies driven by natural resource development (including timber and agriculture as well as fossil fuels) and those with broader geographic or economic scope. The authors suggest that the former, place-based development approaches can be especially effective.

The report examines three regional economic approaches that might be successful in a just transition context: offering capacity-building programs and technical assistance, financially supporting public and community organizations, and financially supporting private firms that may otherwise struggle to access funding. The authors also indicate that such efforts would require coordination among federal, state, and local officials and that substantial scaling up would be required for them to have a meaningful impact.

The report identifies programs that target natural resource–dependent communities and highlights a handful of initiatives that could aid just transitions efforts. For example, the Economic Development Integration program coordinates multiple economic development initiatives across agencies while making deliverables more efficient, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s rural development programs provide technical and financial support for public and private rural institutions. An extensive appendix in the report details many federal policies in full.