This case study presents coal transition scenarios for Poland using two different models: a baseline scenario (business as usual) and a 2-degree scenario aiming for future energy mix that is compliant with the Paris Agreement. The paper includes detailed modeling of Poland’s future energy mix, coal output, coal consumption by sector, and employment in the coal sector through 2050 under these two scenarios. The business-as-usual scenario reflects historical trends and predicts a slower reduction in coal mining by 2030, although the local coal sector is already losing economic competitiveness. The 2-degree scenario, by contrast, suggests an acceleration of the coal phase-out and a steeper reduction in the coal workforce by 2030.
The latter portion of the paper focuses on labor market issues. The authors suggest that stronger efforts are required to protect workers and communities and to prepare for an impending transition. The paper recommends implementing vocational training and other assistance measures that encourage miners to remain in the workforce. They also emphasize the need to stimulate labor demand in coal-mining regions, including in industries where miners’ skill sets may be suitable, such as in construction and manufacturing.