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What is "Just Transition"?

Just Transition for All: Analytical Evidence

This brief includes nine short essays on a range of issues related to just transitions, including summaries of various tools and strategies and brief regional case studies.

Detail

This brief consists of short papers prepared for a breakout session of the 24th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP24) in March 2018. The papers examine various just transitions efforts around the world, including different approaches to green transitions, a case study of distributional impacts in Germany, and a summary of green coalitions and movements in the United States.

Several of the authors emphasize implementing social protections and promoting inclusion to ensure a just transition to a low-carbon economy. The document calls on countries to take urgent action to train workers in the skills needed for a greener economy and to provide them with social protections to facilitate the transition to new jobs. One author argues that a truly just transition cannot focus solely on unionized coal miners but must consider informal workers or service providers as well. Another essay classifies just transitions approaches in terms of their inclusiveness and ambition, offering a useful taxonomy for assessing them. Another author argues in favor of a “systems approach” to just transitions that would use not only sectoral data but also microeconomic, demographic, and social survey data to create a more holistic view of societies in transition.

Coal Transition in Poland

This case study presents two coal transition scenarios for Poland and offers policy recommendations to protect workers and support employment potential in vulnerable coal-producing areas.

Detail

This case study presents coal transition scenarios for Poland using two different models: a baseline scenario (business as usual) and a 2-degree scenario aiming for future energy mix that is compliant with the Paris Agreement. The paper includes detailed modeling of Poland’s future energy mix, coal output, coal consumption by sector, and employment in the coal sector through 2050 under these two scenarios. The business-as-usual scenario reflects historical trends and predicts a slower reduction in coal mining by 2030, although the local coal sector is already losing economic competitiveness. The 2-degree scenario, by contrast, suggests an acceleration of the coal phase-out and a steeper reduction in the coal workforce by 2030.

The latter portion of the paper focuses on labor market issues. The authors suggest that stronger efforts are required to protect workers and communities and to prepare for an impending transition. The paper recommends implementing vocational training and other assistance measures that encourage miners to remain in the workforce. They also emphasize the need to stimulate labor demand in coal-mining regions, including in industries where miners’ skill sets may be suitable, such as in construction and manufacturing.